Blackjack Odds Losing 10 Hands Row



Blackjack odds are percentage figures which represent your probability of losing or winning a hand. They can also represent the house edge or their profit margins as well. Usually probability odds don't mean much on the short term, but they clearly average out in the long term and this is why the casinos always win over the long term.

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alexroach1992

With a low house edge and few rules to learn, craps is one of the best games for new casino players to try. In fact, players can join craps games with online casinos using only two bets and a basic Probability Of Losing 7 Blackjack Hands In A Row. The odds of losing 10 hands without winning is.525^10 or 0.16%. In layman's terms, if you walk into the casino 1000 times and you are willing to sit through up to 10 losing hands in order to get.

What are the odds of losing 14 hands in a row playing perfect basic strategy? (Standing soft 17 with 6 decks)
Also what is the calculation to work out how likely it is to lose x amount of hands in a row?
Many thanks for anyone who can help
teliot

What are the odds of losing 14 hands in a row playing perfect basic strategy? (Standing soft 17 with 6 decks)

Blackjack
The probability of losing 14 in a row is about p = (0.4787)^14 = 0.00003318. So the odds are about 30140-to-1.
Quote:

Also what is the calculation to work out how likely it is to lose x amount of hands in a row?


The probability of losing x in a row is about p = (0.4787)^x. So the odds are about [(1-p)/p] -to-1.
Since I am only giving p to four decimal place accuracy, you shouldn't express the answer with more than 4 significant digits. For example, the odds of losing 30 in a row are about 3964000000-to-1.
mustangsally

The probability of losing 14 in a row is p = (0.4787)^14 = 0.00003318. So the odds are about 30140-to-1.

nice question OP
now, this is with a Push breaking the streak
i think a player would still be crushed losing 14 hands in a row with a few pushes thrown in too
that also makes it way easier to see that event
if one plays 100 hands i show the chance that somewhere in those 100 hands the chance to lose at least 14 in a row = abouts
1 in 657
1000 hands played = 1 in 59
so my non-professional opinion is more hands played increases the chance of seeing such a streak at least 1 time
when a Push breaks the losing streak
i ran recent cvdata sim of 411,318,396 hands played (400 million rounds)
24,574 losing streaks of 14 and higher for the player (pushes did not break the streak)
the average number of rounds to play to see such a losing run
push breaks the streak = 57,747.591 (from a Markov chain calculation)
push no break the streak = 19,453.96652 (from a Markov chain calculation too)
losing streaks in BJ, in my opinion,

Blackjack Odds Chart


are the highest from the games of Craps, Roulette and Baccarat (with the best HE bets)
because using BS does not take into consideration playing the hand to give the highest hand win percentage
(that would be for tournament style BJ play)
I Heart Vi Hart
teliot

now, this is with a Push breaking the streak
i think a player would still be crushed losing 14 hands in a row with a few pushes thrown in too

I get the probability of losing 14 in a row equal to about 8330-to-1 (starting from any fixed hand), when ties don't break the streak.
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alexroach1992
Thanks guys, I've found a site which has a 10p minimum table and 10,000 maximum so I could double up 16 times or so before losing?
I guess it's risky but I would have to be so unlucky playing basic strategy to lose that many times in a row :?(
mustangsally

I get the probability of losing 14 in a row equal to about 8330-to-1 (starting from any fixed hand), when ties are allowed to occur in the streak.

that looks good to me
so over
100 rounds played the probability to see at least 1 such run of 14 losses increases to abouts 1 in 224
1000 rounds = 1 in 20 (lucky 1)
i would say
not one BJ player would think that should ever happen
i am just guessing on that,
but it could and does happen and should be expected to happen
I Heart Vi Hart
mustangsally

Thanks guys, I've found a site which has a 10p minimum table and 10,000 maximum so I could double up 16 times or so before losing?
I guess it's risky but I would have to be so unlucky playing basic strategy to lose that many times in a row :?(

not that risky if you play to win just 1 or 2 times and stop forever
the risk lies in playing it more than 1 time and keeping on playing
the more rounds you play the chances keep increasing that you will see such a losing streak
good luck in your fun
I Heart Vi Hart
AxelWolf

Thanks guys, I've found a site which has a 10p minimum table and 10,000 maximum so I could double up 16 times or so before losing?
I guess it's risky but I would have to be so unlucky playing basic strategy to lose that many times in a row :?(

If it's online then there's probably a 95% it will happen.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
alexroach1992
It's on William Hill...I'd imagine all the simulators they use are regulated. Unlikely they would get away with them being rigged?
odiousgambit
3 things and 2 cents

Blackjack Odds Sheet

Blackjack
*you can spot this kind of post with its subject [in caps no less] 10 miles away and it's always one of two things: the poster has taken a terrible beating several times in a row and thinks it is near impossible
*or is thinking about doing the martingale
*the OP is never interested in learning the math himself, nice try Teliot

Blackjack Odds Explained

so the OP is the latter type ; my 2 cents is, 'forget it'. The martingale has been around for centuries. You can skip the math [which I am thinking is your wont anyway] and just stare that fact in the face. Either that or locate the article about the guy who cleaned out the casinos and the martingale is how he did it.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder

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Blackjack Probability and Blackjack Odds

To fully understand the game of blackjack, you must understand and master blackjack odds. It's crucial to know how the casino gains its edge and how it helps them win. It's also important to understand blackjack odds such as the odds of hitting a 10 or the odds of being dealt a blackjack. You can read over these blackjack odds charts to help understand the logistics behind blackjack.

Casino and Dealer Advantage in Blackjack

In most casino games of blackjack, the house advantage (the dealer advantage) is ~ 8%. The house gets this advantage by the dealer being the last player to act. By acting last, all other players have already made their decisions and could quite possibly bust before the dealer has his turn.

By using correct blackjack basic strategy, you can turn the casino edge in blackjack from 7%-8% down to 0.5%. If you correctly use advanced card counting techniques, you can often change blackjack odds and give yourself the advantage over the casino. Manipulating the house odds to your favor is the reason most casinos don't allow card counters to play blackjack.

Probability of Busting on a Hit

It's very important to know the probability of your hand busting when you are holding any total in the game of blackjack. The following odds chart shows the blackjack odds of busting, depending on your current hand value:

Hand Value% Bust If You Hit
21100%
2092%
1985%
1877%
1769%
1662%
1558%
1456%
1339%
1231%
11 or Less0%

Two-Card Count Frequencies

This interesting blackjack odds chart is the two card count frequency chart. This chart shows the percentage chance that you will be dealt a hand in each given value range. The most important frequencey to note is the chance of being dealt a natural blackjack (natural 21 value. The odds of being dealt a natural blackjack are merely 4.8%. Following this chart you will see that the most common two card hand, at 38.7%, is a hand totaling 1-16, which is considered a decision hand.

Two Card Count% Frequency
Natural 214.8%
Hard Standing (17-20)30.0 %
Decision Hands (1-16)38.7%
No Bust26.5%
TOTAL100.0%

Dealer Final Hand Probabilities

This blackjack odds chart shows the dealer final hand probability. These are the percentages that the dealer will end up with a hand totaling each corresponding value (up to 16). Read over this chart to understand the odds that the dealer has to make his final hand.

Dealer Final Hand Value%Cumulative % Total
Natural 214.82%4.83%
21 (3 or More Cards)7.36%12.19%
2017.58%29.77%
1913.48%43.25%
1813.81%57.06%
1714.58%71.64%
1628.36%100.00%
Blackjack Odds Losing 10 Hands Row

Player Advantage vs. Dealer Up Card

The first two columns in this odds chart explain the dealer's chance of busting, depending on the up card that he is showing. You should note that the dealer has the highest chance of busting when he is showing a 5. The third column in this chart shows the player advantage of using basic strategy, compared to each up card the dealer is showing. You can see that the player has the highest advantage of 23.9%, when the dealer is showing a 5. When the dealer is showing any card that is 9 value or higher, the player is in the negative advantage range.

Dealer Up CardDealer Bust %Player Advantage % with Basic Strategy
235.30%9.8%
337.56%13.4%
440.28%18.0%
542.89%23.2%
642.08%23.9%
725.99%14.3%
823.86%5.4%
923.34%-4.3%
J,Q,K21.43%-16.9%
A11.65%-16.0%

Effects of Removing Cards from a Deck

When looking at the odds of removing certain cards from a 52-card deck, some cards have a much greater effect on blackjack odds. To create the strongest card counting system ever invented, you would have to incorporate all of these slight and subtle differences into the numbers to be a completely accurate system.

Removing every 5 from a deck cards would make the largest impact of improving your blackjack odds, as a player. On the other hand, removing every Ace from a deck of cards would make the largest impact on improving the odds for the casino.

Card% Effect of Removal
20.40%
30.43%
40.52%
50.67%
60.45%
70.30%
80.01%
9-0.15%
10-0.51%
A-0.59%

What Are Your Odds In Blackjack

See also:

Blackjack Odds Calculator


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